Newsletter Archive

112 issues on VC, AI, startups, and market trends — by Trace Cohen.

StartupsMay 27, 2026

I went viral (1M+ views!): NYC summers hate your weekends.

I went viral last week for my fun data, analytics and Ai project

IPOMay 21, 2026

SpaceX S-1 Breakdown: The Financials Behind the Largest IPO Candidate in Tech

At a $350B valuation and $4.694B of Q1 revenue, SpaceX would be valued at roughly 18.6x annualized Q1 revenue.

IPOMay 14, 2026

IPOs are not broken. Reality just changed

The data tells a very different story than the common narrative that “the IPO market is dead.”

AIMay 6, 2026

Palantir Was Right; Tech + Service = Ai Adoption

StartupsApr 30, 2026

Canals are a better metaphor for modern defensibility than moats.

The next great moats may not look like walls at all.

StartupsApr 23, 2026

Moats are dead. Long live canals.

Moats protected kingdoms. Canals created civilizations.

StartupsApr 15, 2026

New The Software Meltdown Isn’t a Cycle. It’s a Reset.post

Over the past few months, something fundamental has shifted in software.

AIApr 8, 2026

OpenAI just made its Instagram/YouTube type acquisition

And it fits exactly with where they are heading.

IPOApr 2, 2026

📊 The 2025 IPO Reality Check

A ValueAddVC Deep Dive

VCMar 24, 2026

I Wrote A Book; The Value-Add VC Handbook!

A practical guide to understanding how venture capital actually works in the AI age

VCMar 18, 2026

VC vs PE Performance: The Data Beneath the Narrative

Performance has stabilized, but liquidity has not fully returned.

StartupsMar 11, 2026

The Era of Valuation Compression

How 71 public tech companies went from peak ZIRP multiples

VCMar 4, 2026

Inside 49 VC Funds: The Data Behind Venture Capital’s Scale Problem

Does size matter?

AIFeb 25, 2026

Agents, Stablecoins, and the “Death of Interchange”

Visa, Mastercard and American Express will be just fine

VCFeb 19, 2026

Value Add VC is Live!

The Hub for All Things VC and More.

StartupsFeb 11, 2026

I think, therefore I build

We're now only limited by our creativity and agency to execute

StartupsFeb 3, 2026

It Was the Best of Times. It Was the Worst of Times.

Venture, SaaS, and Startups in the AI Era

StartupsJan 27, 2026

Why Did Capital One Just Spend $5B+ to Buy Brex?

The quiet battle for the future of digital payment rails

AIJan 20, 2026

SaaS isn’t dead. It just isn’t the main character anymore.

We need to build castles now to protect our data, not moats to protect the business

VCJan 13, 2026

a16z, Fund Size, and the Math of Outsized Venture Returns

Why scale does not break venture returns when ownership, duration, and market structure change

AIJan 6, 2026

Why Enterprise AI Adoption Is Low, Slow, and Mostly Invisible

The tools work. The users are ready. The institutions are the bottleneck.

StartupsDec 31, 2025

Nvidia "licensed" Groq for $20B - Hire & License 2.0 Is Back!

Why Big Tech Needs Capability Now, Why Everyone Gets Paid, and Why This Has Become the Default Liquidity Path in AI

AIDec 24, 2025

My 10 Predictions for AI in 2026

How AI, infrastructure, and ambitious builders create the next decade of innovation

StartupsDec 16, 2025

Enterprises Now Have to BUY Because They Can’t BUILD

Internal teams cannot replicate specialized technology, data moats, and domain expertise fast enough to stay competitive.

VCDec 10, 2025

The Great, Good, Bad & Ugly of VC Fund Economics

What the newest Carta data actually reveals about how venture funds operate

AIDec 3, 2025

140 Vertical AI Startups Worth over $120B Are Reshaping the Industrial Economy

A new dataset of category-defining companies reveals where AI value is actually accumulating — and why the next decade will belong to founders building inside high-stakes industries.

StartupsNov 25, 2025

Pre-Seed and Seed Startups Need to Know the Game They’re Playing

The Gap Between Early Survival and the $10B+ Boss Level

AINov 19, 2025

The Great Reorg of Enterprise Saas in The New Ai World

How AI Is Quickly Reshaping the Enterprise Stack From the Outside in

AINov 12, 2025

Why Depth, Not Scale, Will Define the Next Generation of Ai Winners

The enduring advantage in AI will come from domain expertise, workflow integration, and trust

StartupsNov 4, 2025

Welcome to The Compute Age: MAG7 Earnings and the Infrastructure Boom

Big Tech’s $112B quarter proves that the world is constructing the physical backbone of intelligence

AIOct 27, 2025

From Containers to Factories: The Great AI Reindustrialization of Software

Why Every Company Must Now Manufacture Outcomes, Not Just Display Data

AIOct 21, 2025

The AI Bubble Isn't Going To Pop - Building the Foundations of Intelligence Takes Time

We still need to stay pragmatic and realistic though about expectations

AIOct 13, 2025

The Trillion-Dollar AI Backbone: The Next Great Industrial Evolution

Why America’s Ai boom isn’t a bubble, it’s an amalgamation of steel, silicon, and raw power.

StartupsOct 7, 2025

This Is Not 1999: Stop Calling It a Bubble

The dot-com era was tiny revenue and big stories. Today is trillions in revenue, real capex, and physical constraints. AI is infrastructure, not hype.

AISep 24, 2025

The Trillion-Dollar Bet: Building the Infrastructure for an Agentic Future

Laying the Foundation Now for the AI-Driven World Ahead

AISep 22, 2025

Vertical AI: Investing in the Foundations of the Future

How to invest at the earliest stages of the new agentic world we now live in

AISep 17, 2025

Rate Cuts, Venture Markets, and the AI Super-Cycle

Fed Cuts Into Strength: What History and Markets Tell Us

IPOSep 10, 2025

Venture Capital Is In The Business of Exits

So Lets Understanding Where Exits Happen: Data, Trends, and Industry Patterns

VCSep 3, 2025

Family Offices Are Not VCs

Why 2–5x is enough for many family offices while VCs underwrite every deal for 100x

AIAug 27, 2025

The “95% Failure” MIT AI Report That Spooked Markets Is a Nothing Burger

AIAug 19, 2025

From ZIRP to 5%: AI’s Hype Cycle, What’s Old Is New Again...

AIAug 11, 2025

AI Agents need structure, not just intelligence

The next frontier in Vertical AI is system design; where specialized agents collaborate through orchestrated workflows to solve real business problems

IPOAug 6, 2025

From a $3.8M Seed Check to a $67B IPO: The Figma Story Tech Needed

A failed $20B Adobe acquisition turned into one of the biggest—and most impactful—public debuts the market has seen in years.

IPOJul 29, 2025

Unlocking Liquidity: Why Secondaries Are Reshaping Venture Capital

How liquidity solutions are strengthening LP flexibility, empowering founders, and keeping capital flowing across tech.

IPOJul 22, 2025

The Windsurf Exit: Big Headline, Soft Landing, Rare Outcome

Google didn’t buy the company. The founders exited. The remaining team got lucky. But this isn’t how most startup stories end.

StartupsJul 14, 2025

$1 Billion Per Engineer: Why It’s Rational, Not Radical

For trillion-dollar companies, talent isn't expensive but missed opportunities are!

AIJul 7, 2025

All Hail the King: Zuckerberg’s $16 Billion AI Power Play

Founder control + Meta’s cash engine = a level of audacity no rival can match

AIJun 30, 2025

Traction vs Hype: Understanding How AI Startups Raise Capital in 2025

Navigating the Barbell Game of Venture Funding At The Edges

VCJun 24, 2025

The Carta Q1 2025 VC Fund Report Shows Signs of Improvement But Lots of Work Still Ahead

Some things are improving and getting better while we still deal with other systemic issues

StartupsJun 18, 2025

Big Tech's R&D Dominance; Why Everyone Else Can’t Keep Up

Only the Largest Tech Companies Can Truly Build AI - Everyone Else Is Just Along For The Ride

AIJun 9, 2025

Buy or Fade Away: Why Corporations Can’t Build Their Own AI

Acquisition-as-R&D: The Only Playbook That Works For Enterprise Right Now.

IPOJun 3, 2025

Top VC Exits Are Outpacing Fund Growth

How fund sizes have only doubled while top exits have 7x’d

IPOMay 27, 2025

The Return of the Exit: Liquidity Is Back in Business

A new wave of IPOs and billion-dollar acquisitions is breaking the silence—venture capital is liquid again.

VCMay 19, 2025

Navigating the Post-ZIRP Venture Landscape

Mega early rounds are distorting market dynamics, allowing large firms to overpay early and extend control deeper into the cap table

VCMay 13, 2025

The Bifurcation of Early-Stage Venture: Why Family Offices Hold the Key to Outperformance

Why Family Offices Must Evolve From Direct Investors to Strategic LPs

AIMay 6, 2025

Seed Is Hot Again, Series A Is Frozen, and Emerging VCs Are Fighting to Stay in the Game

Valuations are up, deal volume is down, and LPs are chasing the safe bets—but that’s not where the returns are.

AIApr 28, 2025

The Vertical AI Inflection Point

Why industry-specific intelligence — not another massive model — will define the next generation of enterprise products

AIApr 15, 2025

No Product. No Revenue. Billions Raised Anyways.

Inside the VC math (and mania) behind this year’s biggest AI fundraises.

StartupsApr 7, 2025

The Next Great Companies Will Be Forged in Crisis

Uncertainty isn’t just a challenge—it’s the spark. Here’s how startups are turning today’s volatility into tomorrow’s breakthroughs.

StartupsApr 1, 2025

Who’s REALLY Winning at Unicorn Investing?

Quantity > Quality is Now What Matters Most, Again.

IPOMar 31, 2025

Investing in Israel 2025: A Global Powerhouse for Startups, VC and Liquidity

Record-breaking venture capital, landmark M&A, and IPO resurgence cement Israel’s position as a global tech powerhouse in 2025.

IPOMar 21, 2025

Tech IPOs and M&A Are Back!?

Liquidity is back on the menu - lets see how this will that affect the VC/LP markets?

AIMar 17, 2025

The Ai Corporate Middle Manager Paradox

Caught in the Crossfire: Why Middle Managers Face the Highest Stakes in AI Adoption And Are The Bottleneck For Everyone

AIMar 12, 2025

Buy Now, Build Later; The Smartest AI Play for Fortune 500s

Right now you need to be buying and not building internally before they get left behind

AIMar 3, 2025

The Rise of Vertical AI: Why Industry-Specific AI Startups Are the Real Opportunity

Right now it's Vertical AI Saas because we still need all the current platforms, data and recurring fees to pay the bills

AIFeb 25, 2025

The Shift from Unicorns to AI Titans

Being worth $1B used to be cool but now if you're not worth at least $5-$10B, it doesn't really matter.

VCFeb 11, 2025

The State of U.S. Early-Stage Venture & Startups in 2024

The J-Curve is gone for now - the last few years have been mostly flat as countless startups were marked up highly and are still growing into their valuations.

VCFeb 11, 2025

The Realities of Venture Capital: Embracing Risk and Reward

I keep seeing so many post about why VCs are bad and startups shouldn't raise capital to artificially grow faster, which is the

AIFeb 3, 2025

Vertical AI is The Future of Early-Stage Tech Investing

Industry-specific AI startups that embed deeply into existing workflows, automate high-value processes, and drive measurable economic impact.

VCJan 28, 2025

MegaCorns Hold The Future of The VC World On Their Cap Tables

Hundreds of billion in liquidity are locked up just waiting to be distributed to LPs

VCJan 22, 2025

The Great Bifurcation: How Venture Capital is Splitting into Two Worlds

Regardless of the current environment, we always need to remember that we're in the business of exits.

StartupsJan 11, 2025

Why Now Is The Best Time to Invest In Israel

Startup nation isn't going anywhere and will emerge stronger than ever, again.

VCJan 6, 2025

Why I'm Launching Six Point Ventures: Part 1

It's the culmination of almost two decades in the tech startup world to continue doing what I love.

StartupsDec 31, 2024

Startup Are Not Supposed To Be Profitable.

It's 2025 now, just accept it. Early on it's all about growth and users then figure it out.

VCDec 22, 2024

Are Mega VC Funds Just PE Now?

LPs dont invest in them expecting to make outsized returns - they're just trying to minimize their downside.

StartupsNov 30, 2024

Is a $56M seed round at a $500M valuation really that crazy?

Yes it is but it doesn't matter because because it's part of the game

VCNov 28, 2024

Predictions for Venture Capital in 2025

Let The Good Times Roll. We have a lot to be excited and optimistic about

StartupsNov 26, 2024

Stop Forcing Early DPI on VCs

If managers are forced to chase safer bets, we lose the bold ideas that have historically driven transformative outcomes.

VCNov 25, 2024

Family Offices Are The Backbone of Emerging Managers and Early Stage Startups

Without them, there really wouldn't be a true pre-seed and seed stage market

IPONov 19, 2024

ServiceTitan Files S-1: IPOs Are Coming Back!

Last valued at $9.5B in 2021 or a 15.5x revenue which is a premium

IPONov 13, 2024

Make IPOs Great Again!

It's completely unacceptable that almost no private VC backed startup has gone public in the last year.

StartupsNov 5, 2024

Startup Interview: Turing Labs - The Fastest Way to Reformulate & Innovate CPG

How AI is Revolutionizing Product Development From Concept to Consumer Winning Product 10x faster

IPOOct 30, 2024

Stocks at all time highs but VC liquidity is at all time lows... Coincidence?

We need to fund emerging managers now to prepare for the liquidity wave coming.

VCOct 23, 2024

Venture Capital Is Not Dead. Stop It.

It's been a rough two and a half years but it's not supposed to be easy.

StartupsOct 15, 2024

Early Stage Startup Investing is Not Value Investing

It's risky, contrarian, all about product market fit and growth (not at all costs)

VCOct 4, 2024

What LPs Should Consider When Investing in Emerging VC Managers

Fund are actually pretty complex but when they work, everyone wins!

AISep 24, 2024

The Californication of OpenAi

The Bell Labs of our day has to commercialize and capitalize itself to sustain massive growth and losses to exceed expectations

AISep 20, 2024

Understanding The Family Office World To Fundraise More Effectively Part 1

A guide for emerging managers trying to find, pitch and close LP investors

StartupsSep 10, 2024

MALCoSe in The Middle

M&A, Liquidity, Consolidation and Secondaries are all over the place right now

VCSep 8, 2024

The Paradox of Venture Capital in 2024: Best of Times, Worst of Times

Startups and VC are not supposed to be easy - startups are hard!

AISep 3, 2024

I Used Ai to Code a Very Simple Game - Is This The Future?

With Cursor it was pretty simple but very helpful to have a smart Ai bot to chat with

StartupsAug 26, 2024

The Impact of Capital Concentration in The Tech Startup World

Concentration is good for your portfolio but not for the industry

VCAug 17, 2024

Everyone Stop Freaking Out Over The Carta VC Fund Data!

The first Carta Fund Performance showed how few people actually understand the VC/startup business model

VCAug 13, 2024

Investing in Emerging Managers to Safeguard the Startup Ecosystem

We need to jump start the early stage engine again before the industry stalls

StartupsAug 1, 2024

M&A is Dead - Long Live Hire&License!

BIG tech has found a way to get around regulators and buy the top Ai talent

VCJul 28, 2024

What it Takes For An Emerging Manager to 3x Their Fund

Concentrated or more shots on goal, either way you need a HUGE exit

VCJul 22, 2024

VC Continuation Funds Are a Bug, Not A Feature

As LPs pressure investors for liquidity, VCs bridge their funds to prolong their life as exits take longer

VCJul 11, 2024

Family Offices Are Going To Save VC Emerging Managers

They are starting to really lean in and fill the gaps as LPs to ensure true early stage pre/seed investing gets back on track soon

VCJun 30, 2024

A16Z Accounted For 80% of All LP Funding in Q1

LPs are starting to lean in and write BIG checks into the BIG established VCs again

VCJun 30, 2024

VC Time Travel to 2014: What Can We Learn From The Last Cycle?

Sometimes you need to be a student of the game and learn from our history, to better understand our present and soon to be future

IPOJun 24, 2024

Can startups IPO with <$500M revenue? Yes No Maybe.

It's pretty much impossible for a true VC backed tech startup to IPO early these days

VCJun 13, 2024

VC Emerging Managers Need Your Help: Part 2

It will still be another year before the tech/VC world starts to really recover

StartupsJun 11, 2024

My investment got acquired - Uizard joins Miro!

We invested in Ai 6yrs ago before it was cool

StartupsJun 1, 2024

The Limits of Growth - How BIG Can You Get!?

Maybe startups are still where money/growth is at :)

StartupsMay 25, 2024

BIG Tech is Getting BIGGER - Good or Bad for Startups?

Now Leaner, Meaner and Purpose Driven

VCMay 17, 2024

VC Emerging Managers Need Your Help: Part 1

We need to fund the scouts of the VC world

StartupsMay 3, 2024

"Hardware is Hard!" - Interview with Fi, The Smartest Dog Collar

It's just an easy excuse to pass on startups you're afraid to invest in

VCMay 2, 2024

Why Most LPs Are Playing it Safe Right Now

No one ever got fired for investing in Tier 1 VC

AIApr 24, 2024

Why are there so many billion-dollar AI startups?

Yes, we're 100% in a bubble, but that's okay because that's how the game works.

AIApr 19, 2024

The Humane Ai Pin Just Got Humbled - When Hype Meets It’s Maker

Tech people aren’t haters; they're just jaded and live in an echo chamber

StartupsApr 12, 2024

Trace Cohen's Q1 2024 - Trends, News and Investments

The Startups/VC world is showing some signs of recovery, but is it real?

StartupsJul 21, 2023

Trace Cohen's Q3 - Investments, Trends and Updates

It's been another weird year for tech...

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