Performance has stabilized, but liquidity has not fully returned.
There is a persistent narrative that venture capital is broken and private equity is outperforming.
The data does not fully support that conclusion.
What it does show is a shift in where value is created, how long it takes to realize, and which managers actually matter.
Private markets are coming out of a reset period following the peak of 2021.
Private Equity: ~8 percent annual return in 2024
Venture Capital: ~6 percent annual return in 2024
Distributions increased materially year over year, but remain below long-term averages
Capital calls have declined, reflecting slower deployment and pacing discipline
This is not a recovery driven by strong exits. It is a normalization driven by markdowns, cost discipline, and time.
The key distinction is that performance is improving on paper faster than it is in cash.
The simplest way to understand VC vs PE is not through returns, but through how those returns are generated.
Private equity is built on control, optimization, and financial engineering. Venture capital is built on asymmetry.
Leverage and operational improvements
Predictable cash flow businesses
Power law distribution of returns
Long duration with delayed liquidity
This is why comparing headline IRRs between the two can be misleading. The underlying risk profile and time horizon are fundamentally different.
For most of the last decade, TVPI was enough.
Funds could show strong markups and raise the next vehicle without returning capital.
Today, LPs are overwhelmingly focused on DPI.
TVPI captures unrealized value and is sensitive to market conditions
IRR is heavily influenced by early marks and timing assumptions
DPI reflects actual cash returned and cannot be manipulated
Across venture funds right now:
Many 2020 to 2022 vintages show strong TVPI on paper
DPI remains near zero or low single digits for most of those funds
Older vintages are taking longer to convert TVPI into DPI due to exit delays
This is the core tension in the market. Paper performance is not translating into distributions.
The biggest issue in venture is not entry price or company quality.
IPO markets are still meaningfully below historical averages
M&A activity has improved but is selective and price sensitive
Late-stage capital is more disciplined, reducing mark-to-market inflation
The downstream impact is significant:
Funds are holding assets longer than expected
Capital is not being recycled into new opportunities
LPs are over-allocated to private markets relative to targets
This creates a feedback loop where:
Emerging managers struggle to raise
Even strong-performing funds face longer fundraising cycles
In private equity, this dynamic exists as well, but to a lesser degree due to more structured exit pathways.
Despite everything, one thing has not changed.
Funds deployed after market corrections outperform
Lower entry valuations expand potential multiples
Competition for deals decreases in down cycles
2022 and 2023 vintages are likely to be strong entry points
2020 and 2021 vintages face the most pressure due to high entry prices
2024 onward will depend heavily on exit environment normalization
But this only holds if funds maintain discipline.
Deploying too early into a falling market or too late into a rebounding one can erase the advantage.
The most underappreciated reality in venture is dispersion.
Across funds in the same vintage:
Top quartile funds can generate 3x to 5x+ returns
Bottom quartile funds often return less than 1x
Median outcomes are closer to breakeven than most assume
Access to top-tier founders and deals
Concentration into winners versus over-diversification
Follow-on discipline and ownership maintenance
Sector exposure, particularly to AI and infrastructure
In private equity, dispersion exists but is narrower.
In venture, a single investment can determine the entire fund outcome.
This cycle is not just a downturn. It is a structural shift.
Growth at all costs is no longer rewarded
8 to 10 years is becoming the norm again
Manager selection is becoming more important
The gap between top and median managers is widening
Brand alone is no longer sufficient
Liquidity is replacing markups as the signal
DPI is now the gating factor for fundraising
Secondary markets are becoming more relevant
LPs need to recalibrate how they evaluate and allocate.
Prioritize managers with a history of distributions, not just markups
Underwrite longer fund durations and delayed liquidity
Diversify across vintages rather than trying to time the cycle
Expect lower near-term cash flows from venture portfolios
The biggest risk today is not missing returns.
It is being locked into illiquid positions for longer than expected.
The environment has shifted from access-driven to outcome-driven.
Raising the next fund requires realized performance
Ownership and follow-on strategy matter more than initial entry
Portfolio construction needs to account for longer hold periods
Clear exit pathways must be part of underwriting, not an assumption
Managers who built strategies around continuous capital inflows will struggle.
Managers who can generate actual distributions will win.
Private equity is currently outperforming venture on a realized basis.
But that is not the full picture.
Venture is still the highest-return asset class at the top end. It is simply delayed.
The real divide is no longer between VC and PE.
It is between funds that can return capital and those that cannot.
That is what will define the next cycle.
Venture Scout
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