Light at the end of the tunnel
Preface: I’m not a tariffs or geopolitical expert. My insights come from years in venture and startups. I’m not here to predict macro trends or give policy advice, but I pay close attention to how uncertainty impacts builders—the people creating new products, platforms, and companies. What I’ve seen is that the most meaningful innovation rarely comes during times of abundance. It comes when it’s needed most—when systems break, when stability vanishes, and when people are forced to build smarter, leaner, and more deliberately.
I’ll be attending this Family Office Conference in May to try and learn/find some clarity https://www.byheritage.com/summits/nyc-family-office-summit
Innovation by Necessity
We’re in a period of historic disruption. Economic headwinds are intensifying. Trade tensions, supply chain shifts, political gridlock, and declining trust in institutions are no longer hypothetical risks—they’re the daily reality now.
But this isn’t unprecedented. As Ray Dalio pointed out in a recent post, this type of systemic unraveling—of monetary systems, political structures, and global alliances—has occurred many times in history. These breakdowns tend to mark the beginning of new orders—new ways of thinking, working, trading, and organizing society.
I don’t support the current state of global affairs as any kind of strategic initiative—but I do believe, as always, that there’s light at the end of the tunnel. I’m choosing to stay optimistic and pragmatic, focusing on the opportunities emerging now that will thrive once the dust settles and others start to recognize their potential.
Where the Smart Money Is Going 📊
Contrary to the doomsday headlines, venture capital hasn’t dried up—it’s just recalibrated. Investors are still backing companies. But they’re looking for efficiency, urgency, and clarity. The "growth at all costs" era is over. This is the era of proof.
https://www.cbinsights.com/reports/CB-Insights_Venture-Report-Q1-2025.pdf
According to CB Insights’ Q1 2025 Venture Trends Report:
🧠 1 in 5 venture deals were AI-related
$1.8B was raised by just 8 early-stage AI startups (each raising $100M+)
Overall VC funding dropped 13% quarter-over-quarter, but seed-stage activity remained stable, indicating continued conviction at the earliest stages
What does this tell us? Investors are still placing bold bets—but they’re focusing on foundational, category-defining ideas. The froth is gone, but conviction hasn’t disappeared. In fact, the current moment favors sharper, more thesis-driven investing.
Sectors seeing sustained or renewed interest include:
Deep tech and infrastructure
Vertical AI
Defense and dual-use technology
Energy, climate, and supply chain resilience
Automation in legacy industries
Venture isn’t dead—it’s just maturing (hopefully!).
Vertical AI & the Rebuilding of Real Systems
AI has captured the world’s attention—but the conversation is shifting from general-purpose applications to highly specialized tools. Companies no longer want AI that sounds smart—they want AI that works. That means real, defensible value in specific industries.
What’s emerging is a wave of vertical AI startups that deeply understand their market: healthcare, logistics, construction, manufacturing, defense, and more. These aren’t broad platforms—they’re engineered for real-world complexity and built to replace or augment outdated systems.
At the same time, geopolitical fragmentation and reshoring trends are driving companies to rethink how they source, make, and move things. Fragile supply chains and adversarial trade dynamics have forced companies to prioritize resilience over cost alone. This creates a massive opportunity for startups building in:
Automation for domestic manufacturing
AI-native quality control and factory intelligence
Digital infrastructure for logistics and shipping
Energy grid optimization and storage
Security tools for critical systems
📌 Take CoreWeave, for example. In 2024, they raised $1.1B to scale their cloud infrastructure offering, purpose-built for AI workloads. By early 2025, they secured a $12B deal with OpenAI—making them a key pillar in the emerging compute stack. That’s not just product-market fit—that’s market timing + mission-critical value. They also braved the markets and IPOed as well which was very much needed!
Where to Build Next 🔍
The best startups over the next decade won’t be born in pitch competitions or accelerators. They’ll be forged in the gaps—where legacy systems are breaking and urgent demand is growing.
So where should founders be looking?
Where trust in old systems has collapsed
Where deglobalization is forcing change
Where legacy infrastructure is fragile and expensive
Where workforce shortages are driving automation
Where regulators are demanding new standards for risk and compliance
Where technology can shift economics, not just interfaces
The world is moving fast. But not everything is changing at once. There are clear signals—clear pain points—where the opportunity is real and now.
Final Thought: Build Into the Friction
We are witnessing a historic reset. The old playbooks don’t work anymore. Markets, governments, and industries are all being reshaped by deeper forces—many of which are beyond our control.
But here’s what is within our control: how we build.
The most valuable companies of the next decade will be the ones born in this moment. Not because they had more resources or better luck—but because they chose to build into the friction instead of waiting for the fog to clear.
Uncertainty isn’t a pause button. It’s a prompt.
Let’s build.
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