Analysis
Oura, the maker of the smart ring that has become the default wearable for sleep and recovery tracking, is targeting a US IPO that could raise up to $3 billion at a valuation above $16 billion, Bloomberg reported, with the listing possibly coming as soon as this month. The company confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC on May 21, CNBC first reported, and TechCrunch has since detailed the valuation target circulating among prospective investors.
The growth case
The number underneath the valuation target is real revenue acceleration, and it has sold more than 5.5 million rings since 2015:
“Oura's bet, implicit in the valuation target, is that its subscription revenue and software-like retention numbers deserve a re-rating the category hasn't gotten before.”
- 2024 revenue -- roughly $500 million
- 2025 revenue -- close to $1 billion
- 2026 revenue (expected) -- approaching $2 billion, a fourfold increase in two years
- September 2025 valuation -- $10.9 billion, set in an $875 million Series E
- Target IPO valuation -- above $16 billion, roughly a 45% jump from that mark
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Allen & Co. and Jefferies are managing the listing, and a substantial share of the offering is expected to be existing investors selling stock rather than the company raising primary capital.
The multiple question
A $16 billion valuation against roughly $2 billion of projected 2026 revenue implies an 8x revenue multiple -- rich for a hardware-centric business, though not unreasonable if the market believes Oura's subscription attach rate and gross margins increasingly resemble a software company more than a device maker. That's the real test of this IPO: Oura competes against Whoop, Apple Watch and Samsung's Galaxy Ring in a wearables category that public markets have historically priced at hardware multiples, not software multiples, precisely because device sales are cyclical and margin-thin relative to recurring subscription revenue. Oura's bet, implicit in the valuation target, is that its subscription revenue and software-like retention numbers deserve a re-rating the category hasn't gotten before.
Counterweight
The IPO isn't without complications. A proposed class-action lawsuit filed recently in San Francisco accuses Oura of misleading consumers about the accuracy of its sleep-tracking features -- a live legal risk that will need disclosure in the public prospectus and could shape how public-market investors discount the growth story. And Pulse has already flagged that this fall's IPO market is pricing mega-cap AI names and everything else very differently: Lyntris priced below range and dropped 10% on its debut in August, a reminder that a strong growth narrative alone hasn't guaranteed a smooth pricing this year.
Oura's listing, whenever it prices, will be one of the clearer tests of whether a consumer hardware company with genuine subscription economics can actually command a software-like multiple in this market, or whether public investors default back to hardware comparables the moment the roadshow ends.
