Analysis
Oura shelved its $2.2 billion IPO hours before pricing this week, but the queue of companies behind it hasn't gone anywhere. Crunchbase News counts a genuinely loaded fall pipeline: SpaceX as the class headliner, Nvidia-backed neocloud Nscale, Blackstone-backed Fidelis Partnership, and data-center operator Switch.
Update: Anthropic's public S-1, filed October 26, 2026, reports approximately $417 billion in aggregate future minimum payment obligations under lease and commercial agreements signed or amended after December 31, 2025, beginning between 2026 and 2027 on terms from less than one year to 20 years. It estimates a further $125 billion to $150 billion for expanded agreements whose terms are not yet final, with capacity delivered between 2028 and 2031. The $518 billion figure in this story comes from earlier reporting on the draft filing and does not appear in the S-1 text we reviewed.
Nscale is the cleanest illustration of what public investors are now pricing more skeptically:
“It estimates a further $125 billion to $150 billion for expanded agreements whose terms are not yet final, with capacity delivered between 2028 and 2031.”
- Nscale H1 revenue -- $140.6M
- Nscale H1 net loss -- $1.02B
- Anthropic's reported compute commitments -- $518B per earlier reports, the same growth-ahead-of-profit shape dominating this week's headlines
Oura, by contrast, is profitable with 90% projected revenue growth -- and still got pulled. That's the tell: this isn't a profitability screen, it's a broader repricing of risk appetite across the entire 2026 IPO class.
SpaceX staying the class headliner by scale is worth sitting with -- 2026's single biggest tech listing may not be an AI company at all, even as OpenAI and Anthropic's funding numbers dominate this issue. For GPs marking late-stage positions to an assumed year-end IPO exit, Oura's pullback is the clearest reason yet to stress-test that timeline rather than take it as a base case.
