Analysis
Corrected Sep 29, 2026: an earlier version said Oura had priced its Nasdaq debut and counted it among actual pricings. Oura has set a $40-$44 range and is expected to price this week; it has not priced. Actual pricings in the window: one (ADARx).
The gap between how many companies are filing to go public and how many are actually pricing widened again in late September. The SEC logged 12 new S-1 filings and 11 S-1/A or 424B4 pricing amendments in a single window between Sept. 24 and 25, spanning names from Elevation Acquisition Group to Interpace Biosciences to City Therapeutics. In that same stretch, only one name actually converted to a priced, trading listing: ADARx, which priced its $446 million Nasdaq debut. Oura, the biggest name in the queue, has set a range of $40 to $44 a share (per its IPO launch) at a targeted $15.6 billion valuation and is expected to price this week; it has not priced yet.
“The SEC logged 12 new S-1 filings and 11 S-1/A or 424B4 pricing amendments in a single window between Sept.”
A filing-to-pricing ratio this wide is a pipeline-stocking signal more than an acceleration signal -- underwriters and issuers file early to preserve optionality on a favorable window without committing to price into it immediately, which is standard practice but means the raw filing count overstates near-term liquidity. It's also notable that most of the filing volume skews toward acquisition corps and smaller-cap names rather than the venture-backed growth companies most funds are actually counting on for distributions -- a distinction that matters because acquisition-corp filings can sit dormant for months waiting on a merger target, while operating-company S-1s are typically further along the pricing runway once filed.
For funds modeling exit timing this year, the practical read is to track the conversion rate, filings that actually price within a defined window, rather than the raw filing count, which is the metric most likely to get cited in year-end IPO recaps without the context of how few of those filings ever reach a trading ticker. A roughly 1-in-23 conversion rate over a single week is a small sample, but it's consistent with the broader pattern Pulse has tracked all fall: filing volume has stayed elevated while actual pricing events have clustered around a handful of high-conviction names rather than spreading broadly across the pipeline.