Analysis
Nebius Group reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $980.8 million on November 12, up 571% from a year earlier and ahead of the $907.5 million analysts expected, per LSEG data cited by CNBC.
The AI cloud company also gave its first 2027 outlook, $12 billion to $13 billion of revenue, yet Nebius shares were down 10% on Thursday morning, per CNBC, because the same report steered 2026 revenue to the low end of its range and lifted spending plans sharply.
What Nebius does
Nebius, based in Amsterdam, sells GPU compute, storage, managed services and tools to AI developers, as the company describes its cloud on its newsroom. The same page lists its other businesses: Toloka, a data partner for generative AI development; TripleTen, an edtech company re-skilling people for tech careers; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for cars and delivery robots. Arkady Volozh is CEO, per CNBC. Nvidia held about $329 million in Nebius shares at the end of June, CNBC reported, citing a 13F filing.
“Nvidia held about $329 million in Nebius shares at the end of June, CNBC reported, citing a 13F filing.”
Nebius Q3 2026 earnings by the numbers
The loss is shrinking while revenue scales. Nebius posted a net loss of $37.5 million, or 13 cents a share, against $119.6 million, or 50 cents, a year earlier, per CNBC.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $465.8 million versus a loss of $5.2 million a year earlier, Grafa reported. Those are the numbers bulls will point to.
The spending is the number the market reacted to. Nebius put $7.3 billion into property, equipment and intangible assets in the quarter alone, per Grafa, roughly 7.4 times its quarterly revenue.
Nebius raised its 2026 capex plan and gave first 2027 targets:
- Nebius 2026 capex -- $27 billion, above the previous $20 billion to $25 billion plan (CNBC)
- Nebius 2027 capex plan -- $40 billion to $45 billion, against a $28.77 billion FactSet consensus (CNBC)
- Nebius 2027 revenue -- $12 billion to $13 billion, bracketing FactSet's $12.09 billion (CNBC)
- Nebius 2026 revenue -- low end of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, against FactSet's $3.35 billion (CNBC)
How Nebius is paying for the buildout
Nebius said it raised $5.75 billion in debt financing during the quarter, per CNBC, which Grafa tied to an August convertible-note offering.
A separate Citi facility followed in October, which Pulse covered at the time as a 364-day facility priced at Term SOFR plus 2.75%, per Pulse2.com's report. Against a 2027 capex plan of up to $45 billion, those two financings cover a fraction of what has to be funded.
Value Add VC data
Nebius is public, so its recent capital is debt rather than venture rounds. Financings we could verify this run:
- Aug 2026, convertible notes -- about $5.75 billion gross proceeds (Grafa)
- Oct 2026, senior secured facility -- $3.5 billion arranged by Citi (Pulse)
Comparable neocloud results and data:
- CoreWeave -- Q3 2026 revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168%, with a $132.5 billion backlog (Pulse)
- CoreWeave debt -- bond yields spiked past 16% last week; the company expects parent-level debt financing under $5 billion through 2027 (CNBC)
Nebius competitors and the neocloud market
Nebius competes with CoreWeave, Lambda, Crusoe and Nscale, among others named by Bisnow, which cited Synergy's projection that the neocloud segment will sustain a 58% compound annual growth rate over the next five years. The trade is volatile: on Wednesday, CoreWeave rose nearly 25% and Nebius climbed 15% before Thursday morning's reversal, per CNBC. CoreWeave reports nearly four times Nebius's quarterly revenue, which shows how much ground the 2027 guide assumes Nebius will make up.
The risk in the 2027 guide
The guide is a forecast, not booked revenue: Nebius would need to roughly quadruple from its 2026 total to hit the 2027 range. That depends on capacity coming online on schedule, and capacity depends on raising tens of billions more at a time when CoreWeave's bond yields above 16% show what lenders are charging the sector. A slip in data-center delivery would hit revenue and interest costs at once.