Why AI Megadeals Are Skewing The Whole Venture Market's Average

Three AI infrastructure megadeals are large enough to distort what a typical venture round even means right now, with the tracked average deal size running at $480 million.

By the Numbers

$257.4B
Total funding tracked (21 weeks)
536
Deals included
$480M
Average deal size
$44.0B (32 funds)
VC fund closes tracked separately
$60B
Anthropic's debt package
Why AI Megadeals Are Skewing The Whole Venture Market's Average: key figures
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THE RUNDOWN

1

Average deal size across the tracker's 536 rounds is $480M, but that figure is skewed heavily by megadeals like Anthropic's $60B debt package and OpenAI's $20B round.

2

32 VC fund closes worth $44.0 billion are tracked separately from the $257.4 billion in company-level deals, understating how much fresh capital actually entered the market.

3

Several of the ten largest deals tracked are AI infrastructure debt or compute financings rather than equity rounds, a sign the biggest checks are increasingly debt, not stock.

4

For founders outside the AI-infrastructure tier, the 'average round' headline number is not a useful fundraising benchmark.

The VC Read

Value Add VC analysis

An average of $480M across 536 deals is meaningless as a benchmark for an actual Series A or seed check -- it's almost entirely a function of a handful of multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure packages. Founders raising a normal round should look at the median, not the average, and GPs should ask portfolio companies competing for talent and attention whether they're being judged against a market that nine-figure AI infra deals have badly distorted.

Analysis

Value Add Pulse has tracked $257.4 billion in venture and growth-stage funding across 536 deals over the past 21 weeks, an average of $480 million per round -- a figure that says more about a handful of AI infrastructure megadeals than about the typical startup raise.

Four of the ten largest deals tracked on Pulse's funding tracker alone account for more than a third of the entire 21-week total:

  • Anthropic -- $60B debt package (AI infra)
  • OpenAI -- $20B round backed by Nvidia and SoftBank (AI infra)
  • Blue Origin -- ~$10B raise at a $130B valuation (space)
  • DeepSeek -- $7.4B round (internet/AI)

That concentration means the $480 million average is not a useful fundraising benchmark for most founders. The tracker separately counts 32 VC fund closes worth $44.0 billion -- capital raised by the firms doing the investing, not the companies receiving it -- and 69 records it is holding for review over contradictory figures, a reminder that even verified-sounding funding numbers in AI often need a second check before they're citable as fact.

Several of the ten biggest deals tracked are AI infrastructure plays -- compute, debt financing, or both -- rather than product-stage equity rounds, reinforcing that the capital flowing into AI right now increasingly looks like project finance for data centers and chips, not traditional venture investment in software companies.

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Key Sources

2 sources

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