Analysis
According to Hydrocarbon Processing, the offer's terms:
- Size: about $1.63 billion (2.15 trillion naira)
- Shares: 4.1 billion ordinary shares at 525 naira each, with an option to sell up to 30% more if demand exceeds that amount
- Window: opened Sept. 14, scheduled to close Oct. 13
- Listing: trading expected to begin on Nigeria's exchange in late November
CEO David Bird told Reuters the goal is "the people's IPO" -- wide participation from Nigerians, the diaspora and other Africans rather than a narrow institutional placement.
“13 as the close, with language allowing an earlier close if the offer is oversubscribed, not a later one.”
Why investors are showing up for this one
The refinery, on the outskirts of Lagos, began operations in 2024 after a large multi-year construction program and now runs at 700,000 barrels a day. Its financial turnaround is the backdrop for retail enthusiasm:
- Full-year 2025: $476 million net loss
- First half of 2026: $1.82 billion after-tax profit
That swing is driving demand for an offer explicitly pitched at individual Nigerian investors rather than foreign funds. Dangote is simultaneously pursuing a separate expansion meant to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels a day by 2029, and has said UAE state oil company ADNOC has expressed interest in investing alongside other parties, though he declined to give details citing non-disclosure agreements.
A handful of outlets have described the subscription window as extended into late October, but Daba Finance's own tracking of the offer shows no such extension: the prospectus sets Oct. 13 as the close, with language allowing an earlier close if the offer is oversubscribed, not a later one. What the headline $1.6 billion figure misses is that this is an equity raise against an already-profitable, already-built asset, not a growth-stage bet -- the real test is whether the follow-on $14.3 billion expansion gets financed on terms that reflect that profitability, or whether Dangote ends up leaning more heavily on debt than this IPO's retail framing suggests.