Analysis
SpaceX snapped a seven-day losing streak, CNBC reported on July 21, and set an earnings date that coincides with the company's first major post-IPO share-lockup expiration -- a milestone every newly public mega-cap eventually faces, and one that has historically triggered real selling pressure as employees, early investors and pre-IPO shareholders become free to liquidate positions that were previously locked up.
SpaceX's stock has already been trading well below its post-IPO high in the weeks since its roughly $2 trillion debut, making this lockup expiration a more consequential event than it would be for a stock trading near or above its offering price. Lockup expirations tend to matter more, not less, when a stock has already underperformed -- insiders sitting on paper losses relative to peak valuation may be more inclined to sell into any strength rather than hold through further uncertainty.
This is playing out as a real-time stress test for the broader thesis, floated this week by Fortune and others, that Anthropic and OpenAI represent the 'next trillion-dollar IPO' opportunity. SpaceX is the only genuinely comparable data point available -- a company that priced at a scale previously reserved for Apple, Microsoft and Saudi Aramco -- and its post-IPO trading pattern, including this lockup event, is the most relevant precedent for anyone modeling how an Anthropic or OpenAI listing might trade in its first year.
For comparison, mega-cap tech IPOs and direct listings historically show measurable price pressure around lockup expirations -- Facebook's 2012 lockup expirations are the textbook case, with the stock falling meaningfully as successive tranches of restricted shares became sellable. SpaceX's situation differs in scale and in the unusual amount of public attention on every price move given its status as the largest IPO in history, but the underlying mechanic is the same.
For investors positioning around future AI-lab IPOs, SpaceX's lockup event and subsequent trading are worth tracking closely over the coming weeks -- it's the closest live rehearsal available for how markets absorb insider selling at this unprecedented scale, and the outcome will likely shape how bankers structure lockup terms for whichever AI lab goes public next.
