Analysis
OpenAI expects annualized revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion by the end of 2026, up from roughly $50 billion at the end of September, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, in a report carried by Moneyweb on October 9. The growth is attributed largely to the company's enterprise business, and comes as Pulse has tracked OpenAI's valuation climb through a string of mega-rounds this year.
The guidance lands as OpenAI is reportedly in talks to raise fresh capital at a steep markup on the round it closed in March. A company targeting 40% quarter-over-quarter ARR growth, if it holds, would be scaling revenue faster than almost any enterprise software company in history reached a comparable size.
But it's guidance, not a reported actual, and OpenAI has not published audited figures to confirm either number independently. Every figure in this chain, from September's run rate through the year-end target to the fresh valuation talk it's meant to support, traces back to people familiar with the matter rather than a filed financial statement.
“The guidance lands as OpenAI is reportedly in talks to raise fresh capital at a steep markup on the round it closed in March.”
The comparison that matters most to investors is Anthropic, whose annualized revenue reportedly already hit $65 billion by the end of July -- ahead of OpenAI's own cited September figure -- despite Anthropic's publicly reported valuation sitting well below OpenAI's.
OpenAI's year-end target, if it holds, would retake the revenue lead even as the valuation gap between the two labs stays wide. Newcomer has separately reported that competing, fuzzy ARR estimates across the AI sector are becoming a growing source of investor confusion as valuations get set on numbers nobody outside the company can verify.
What the guidance doesn't resolve: annualized revenue run rate (ARR) is a snapshot, not cash collected, and a single enterprise contract signed in December could inflate a year-end ARR figure without reflecting steady-state demand. Until OpenAI discloses audited revenue or files for a public listing, every number in this story traces back to people familiar with the matter rather than a verified financial statement.