Analysis
Anthropic's earliest venture backers are staring at some of the largest paper returns in startup history as the company edges toward an IPO that could value it at up to $2 trillion -- more than double its $965 billion private mark from May 2026, according to a Bloomberg report cited by TechCrunch on October 23, 2026.
Spark Capital's $75 million check into Anthropic's 2023 Series C, made when the company was valued at just $5 billion, is now worth roughly $7 billion -- a markup of more than ninety times in three years.
The numbers reach back further than most AI coverage usually goes. Eric Schmidt invested in Anthropic's 2021 Series A at a $461 million valuation, per PitchBook data, and now holds roughly 1% of the company -- a stake nearing $10 billion.
“- Iconiq -- invested at the 2025 mark and could see its stake double again if the IPO prices at the top of its range.”
Anthropic's valuation has climbed in rapid, overlapping rounds since then, drawing Coatue and Iconiq at the 2025 mark, Sequoia at the early-2026 mark, and landing at the $965 billion private round in May that most of these stakes are now valued against.
Who's Holding The Biggest Stakes
- Coatue -- co-led Anthropic's last two rounds; its position has grown into one of the largest paper stakes on the cap table.
- Iconiq -- invested at the 2025 mark and could see its stake double again if the IPO prices at the top of its range.
- Menlo Ventures -- led the Series D; its early check has compounded into a multibillion-dollar position.
- Sound Ventures -- invested in the 2023 Series C; the stake is worth billions, though Ashton Kutcher left the firm this year to start a new fund of his own.
These markups dwarf even the biggest paper wins from the dot-com and mobile eras. Early Google and Facebook investors saw roughly 100x to 200x returns over a decade; Spark's Anthropic position has done nearly that in three years, and Schmidt's in five. For comparison, OpenAI -- Anthropic's closest rival -- is reportedly in talks to raise up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, a round that would put its own backers' markups in a similar range once it closes.
None of this is money in hand, and not yet close to it. Every figure above is a paper gain marked against Anthropic's last private round, not a realized return, and it assumes the IPO prices anywhere near the reported $2 trillion range -- a number that has already moved once (Anthropic's 2026 marks have ranged from $380 billion to $965 billion within a single year) and could compress if public-market investors balk at AI valuations the way some have already begun to with OpenAI's rival raise.
What happens next hinges on timing: Anthropic filed confidentially for its IPO in June, the same month OpenAI did, and both are now racing toward a listing window that will decide whether these are the biggest venture returns in history or the biggest markdowns.
