Analysis
Update (October 26, 2026): Anthropic's public S-1, filed with the SEC on October 26, puts the SpaceX figure above the confidential-draft number reported here. The filing says Anthropic agreed to spend an aggregate of up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC (formerly X.AI LLC) over terms extending into 2029, roughly $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, which it expects in December 2026. Each agreement can be cancelled by either party on 90 days' advance written notice, but only after initial non-cancelable periods ending in January 2027 and March 2027. The figures below are as reported on September 29; Pulse's S-1 compute-commitments story covers the public filing's totals.
Update: Anthropic's public S-1, filed October 26, 2026, reports approximately $417 billion in aggregate future minimum payment obligations under lease and commercial agreements signed or amended after December 31, 2025, beginning between 2026 and 2027 on terms from less than one year to 20 years. It estimates a further $125 billion to $150 billion for expanded agreements whose terms are not yet final, with capacity delivered between 2028 and 2031. It describes the SpaceXAI arrangements as an aggregate of up to $120.5 billion over terms extending into 2029. The $518 billion total and the roughly 80% non-cancelable share in this story come from earlier reporting on the draft filing and do not appear in the S-1 text we reviewed.
Anthropic's confidential IPO prospectus discloses compute agreements with SpaceX worth up to $84.5 billion through 2029, Seeking Alpha reported Sep 29 after reviewing the filing -- nearly double the roughly $45 billion figure implied by SpaceX's own earlier IPO paperwork. The agreements give Anthropic access to Nvidia-based hardware capacity run by SpaceX's compute infrastructure business, a relationship that has grown well beyond what either company had previously signaled.
“It estimates a further $125 billion to $150 billion for expanded agreements whose terms are not yet final, with capacity delivered between 2028 and 2031.”
The SpaceX number is a fraction of a much bigger reported figure: earlier reporting on the draft prospectus put Anthropic's total infrastructure and compute spending obligations at $518 billion or more over the next decade, alongside nearly $42 billion in net losses for 2025. Roughly 80% of that $518 billion was reported as non-cancelable -- minimum commitments Anthropic has to pay whether or not it actually uses the capacity, the kind of fixed-cost structure that amplifies both the upside and downside of a demand forecast miss.
The SpaceX agreements are the exception to that pattern. Unlike most of the other infrastructure deals in the reported $518 billion total, the SpaceX contracts can mostly be cancelled with 90 days' notice -- flexibility Anthropic doesn't have on the bulk of its other compute commitments. That distinction is likely to matter to IPO investors modeling downside scenarios: a company that can walk away from a chunk of its compute spend on a quarter's notice carries different risk than one locked into long-term fixed payments.
The disclosure also underscores how central SpaceX has become to the AI infrastructure buildout beyond its core rocket and satellite business -- a role that's drawn less public attention than Anthropic's own compute deals with Google, Microsoft and Nvidia, but now rivals them in size.
