Analysis
SpaceX shares are trading roughly 42% below their post-IPO peak of $225.64 reached June 16, heading into the company's first-ever quarterly earnings report as a public company on August 4 -- an event that also triggers one of the largest insider share unlocks in market history. Under the IPO's lockup terms, 20% of shares frozen since the offering become eligible for sale on the second full trading day after earnings, landing on August 6.
That single unlock could put up to 911.5 million shares into potential circulation, worth as much as $116 billion at current prices -- a figure that exceeds the entire $75 billion SpaceX raised in its record-setting IPO. Roughly a third of SpaceX's public float is already sold short, reflecting genuine market skepticism about how the stock absorbs that much potential new supply landing in a single week.
The decline isn't happening in a vacuum: SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and an additional $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026, and a rich valuation, new debt issuance, and recent Starship launch delays have all weighed on the stock since its post-IPO high. At the same time, the company has quietly built a genuinely lucrative AI-compute leasing business, renting Nvidia GPU capacity to Anthropic for $1.25 billion a month and to Google for $920 million a month -- a combined $2.17 billion in monthly revenue, or roughly $26 billion annualized, that didn't exist as a business line before this year.
That split -- mounting losses on the rocket and satellite side, a fast-growing and high-margin compute-leasing business on the other -- is exactly what August 4's earnings report will need to clarify for the market, likely for the first time with real segment-level detail rather than analyst estimates.
What to watch: how SpaceX's stock absorbs the August 6 insider unlock relative to the roughly one-third short interest already in place, and whether the August 4 earnings report reveals the AI-compute-leasing segment growing fast enough to offset the space and connectivity segments' continued losses.
