Analysis
OpenAI's ambition to go public at a valuation exceeding $1 trillion is running into a genuine timing test, according to new reporting, as rival Anthropic gains ground in the race to list first. OpenAI filed confidentially with the SEC on June 8, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading preparations, but the company's own leadership remains split on timing -- CFO Sarah Friar has favored waiting until 2027 to let growth compound further, while CEO Sam Altman has pushed for a possible September 2026 listing.
Anthropic, which filed confidentially on June 1 and is still targeting an October Nasdaq debut, currently commands a $965 billion valuation per PitchBook -- above OpenAI's own $852 billion mark from its March funding round -- despite OpenAI's larger user base and longer fundraising track record. The gap matters because a fall IPO prospectus would surface OpenAI's 2025 losses (with cumulative losses projected as high as $115 billion by 2029) at the same time Anthropic has indicated it expects to reach its first operating profit, a contrast public-market investors are likely to weigh heavily when comparing the two frontier labs' actual financial trajectories rather than just their model capabilities.
“What to watch: whether Anthropic actually prices in October as planned, and whether OpenAI's timing decision shifts based on how Anthropic's debut is received.”
Notably, OpenAI's own leadership reportedly expects Anthropic to list first -- a striking acknowledgment given OpenAI's scale advantage, and one that reflects how much public-market readiness now hinges on demonstrated profitability path rather than raw valuation ambition or user count.
For growth investors and LPs, the race is becoming a genuine test case for how public markets will price frontier AI labs: on total addressable market and brand recognition, where OpenAI likely wins, or on a credible near-term path to profitability, where Anthropic currently has the cleaner story. What to watch: whether Anthropic actually prices in October as planned, and whether OpenAI's timing decision shifts based on how Anthropic's debut is received.
