Analysis
Anthropic's own IPO target is reportedly around $2 trillion, but an early backer thinks the market will push past it. Speaking to Fortune on condition of anonymity, the investor said he expects Anthropic's shares to price around $1.8 trillion and then trade up to $2.3 trillion to $2.4 trillion once the stock opens -- a level that would top SpaceX's $2.1 trillion opening-day market cap, the largest tech IPO on record. The investor flatly calls Anthropic 'the fastest-growing company in history.'
How Anthropic got here
Anthropic was founded in 2021 by siblings Dario and Daniela Amodei, who left OpenAI along with several other researchers to build a rival frontier-model lab with safety research as a founding premise. Pulse has covered Anthropic's run through more than 200 stories this year alone, from enterprise deals to new Claude releases to funding rounds that have repeatedly reset the AI funding market's ceiling. The company's revenue mix is unusual for the sector: the backer says enterprise customers generate roughly 80% of Anthropic's revenue, a sharper tilt toward paying business customers than most consumer-heavy AI rivals.
“What to watch: Anthropic's eventual S-1, which will disclose real growth rates, customer concentration and gross margins instead of a backer's estimate.”
The SpaceX comparison, and why it matters
SpaceX is the bar because it is the only other private company to go public at this scale this year, closing its first day of trading at $2.1 trillion. If Anthropic's backer is right, Anthropic wouldn't just match that record -- it would become the most valuable company to go public from venture backing in history. The comparison cuts the other way too: OpenAI's business reportedly generates only around half its total sales from enterprise customers, a materially different mix from Anthropic's claimed 80%, and a detail investors will scrutinize once Anthropic's S-1 becomes public.
The bear case
The prediction rests entirely on one anonymous backer's opinion, offered before any roadshow, prospectus or confirmed pricing. Backers talking up a number ahead of an IPO are also doing investor-relations work, not just forecasting. Until Anthropic actually files and prices, $2.3-2.4 trillion is a scenario, not a fact, and the gap between a $1.8 trillion opening price and a $2.4 trillion aftermarket pop is itself a bet on retail and institutional demand holding up on day one.
What to watch: Anthropic's eventual S-1, which will disclose real growth rates, customer concentration and gross margins instead of a backer's estimate.
