Is Anduril Profitable in 2026? Not Yet — Here's the Math

Anduril is not profitable. The defense technology company is projected to generate about $4.3 billion in revenue in 2026 — against a projected operating loss of roughly $1.2 billion, with EBITDA breakeven not expected until around 2030.

Anduril Industries, the Palmer Luckey-founded defense startup last valued at $90 billion in an employee share sale and reportedly in talks for a round near $100 billion, is still losing money at the operating level even as its revenue climbs fast. Research firm Sacra estimates 2025 revenue at about $2.2 billion, up roughly 120% from 2024, and projects $4.3 billion for 2026 — but also projects a 2026 operating loss of about $1.2 billion as the company spends heavily on new manufacturing capacity ahead of its biggest contracts.

Is Anduril Profitable? The Revenue-vs-Loss Breakdown

Anduril is not profitable on an operating basis, and its own management doesn't expect it to reach adjusted-EBITDA profitability until roughly 2030, according to Sacra's research. The company's trajectory shows fast top-line growth paired with a loss that's also growing in dollar terms: Sacra estimates 2024 revenue at about $1 billion, rising to an estimated $2.2 billion in 2025 (up about 120%), and projects $4.3 billion for 2026 — nearly doubling again. Contrary Research separately pegs Anduril's 2025 gross profit margin at 38% and its 2025 operating loss at about $800 million, a figure Sacra projects will widen to roughly $1.2 billion in 2026.

The Orange County Business Journal, in an August 31, 2026 report, measured revenue on a different 12-month window — the year ended June 30, 2026 — and found $2.2 billion, a 424% increase over two years, the largest two-year revenue jump among the county's fastest-growing private companies. That figure lines up roughly with Sacra's calendar-2025 estimate even though the measurement periods differ, which is itself a reminder that private-company revenue figures reported by different outlets often use different fiscal windows.

Why a $90 Billion Company Is Still Losing Money

The gap between Anduril's valuation and its current profitability comes down to timing: the company is spending capital today to build the manufacturing capacity it needs to deliver on contracts that pay out over years. Its Arsenal-1 facility in Ohio, a roughly $1 billion, 5-million-square-foot plant, was slated for full production in July 2026, and a similarly sized campus in Long Beach and Lakewood, California — also about $1 billion and 1.18 million square feet — is planned to open in mid-2027, per Sacra's research. A Mississippi solid rocket motor factory came online in August 2025 and is targeting 6,000 motors per year by the end of 2026.

On the revenue side, Anduril's largest potential contract is a 10-year U.S. Army enterprise agreement awarded in March 2026, consolidating more than 120 prior procurement actions, with a stated ceiling of up to $20 billion — a maximum, not a guaranteed or obligated amount, as Sacra's research is careful to note. Other disclosed deals include a $642 million Marine Corps counter-drone award, a $1.98 billion Kuwait counter-drone sale approved by the U.S. government, and an Australian Ghost Shark submarine contract worth roughly A$1.7 billion over five years. Those contracts represent years of potential future revenue that hasn't yet fully flowed through the income statement, while the factories needed to fulfill them are being built and paid for now.

Anduril's Funding Has Outpaced Its Path to Profit

Anduril's valuation has climbed far faster than any profitability metric: a $450 million Series D in June 2021 valued it around $4.7 billion, a $1.48 billion Series E in December 2022 pushed that to $8.5 billion, a Series F in August 2024 reached $14 billion, a $2.5 billion Series G in June 2025 brought it to $30.5 billion, and a $5 billion Series H in May 2026 — led by Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive Capital — doubled that again to $61 billion. By July 2026, Reuters reported the company was already in talks for a new round near $100 billion, and an August 2026 employee share sale was reportedly discussed at a $90 billion valuation. At $61 billion, Anduril traded at roughly 27.7 times its then-reported revenue, according to data aggregator multiples.vc — a multiple that reflects investor confidence in the contract backlog described above, not current earnings.

Where we could be wrong

Anduril is private, and every figure here — revenue, margin, operating loss, and the 2030 EBITDA timeline — comes from third-party research firms and reporters' sourcing, not an audited financial statement the company has published itself. Sacra's own page shows internal inconsistency on the exact terms of the Series H round, and the Orange County Business Journal's 12-month-ended-June-30 window isn't the same measurement period as Sacra's calendar-year estimates, so treat any single number as an informed estimate rather than a confirmed figure. It's also possible Anduril reaches profitability faster than 2030 if its largest contracts — especially the Army's enterprise deal — convert obligated dollars faster than the current ramp suggests, or slower if factory buildouts in Ohio and California run over budget or behind schedule.