Analysis
SpaceX shares closed up 15.83% on August 7 at $133.11, capping a week that started with the company's first post-IPO lockup expiration and a Q2 earnings report that split investors down the middle. Revenue jumped 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, beating analyst estimates of $6.93 billion, while the net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier, according to CNBC.
The stock initially fell as much as 8% in after-hours trading following the August 4 print, as investors focused on capital expenditures of $18.4 billion for the quarter -- nearly double the $10.1 billion spent the prior quarter and well above what analysts had modeled. That capex number is the same one funding Terafab and the Starmind orbital data-center buildout, and it is the real risk in the SpaceX story right now: spending growth outrunning revenue growth, even with a headline beat.
Sentiment reversed once more than 911 million insider shares unlocked on August 6 without the selling pressure some investors feared, and Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $160 price target. Axios reported the rally also drew on confirmation that SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock purchase of AI coding startup Cursor is on track to close this quarter, and on the Terafab update discussed alongside it.
The whipsaw -- an 8% post-earnings drop followed by a 15.83% single-day gain three days later -- is a preview of what trading a story stock this size looks like without a long quarterly track record to anchor expectations. SpaceX's connectivity business remains the largest single driver of revenue at $4.3 billion, with 1.7 million net Starlink subscriber additions in the quarter, while the space-launch segment grew a more modest 29% to $962 million, the latest swing in Pulse's ongoing coverage of SpaceX since its Nasdaq debut.
