Analysis
Anthropic is expected to receive a high 'junk' credit rating from rating agencies once it goes public, according to a Financial Times report cited by TechCrunch on October 30, 2026 -- a downgrade from Blackstone's earlier prediction that the Claude maker would reach investment-grade before 2027.
What changed since Pulse's last coverage
The new development is a ratings call, not a financing one. Pulse previously tracked the scale of Anthropic's compute-financing buildout heading into its IPO:
- Debt-backed financing lined up since September -- roughly $138 billion, by Pulse's own tally of financing arrangements reported by outlets.
- Debt actually outstanding, per Anthropic's S-1 -- $6.2 billion.
“- Debt actually outstanding, per Anthropic's S-1 -- $6.2 billion.”
Blackstone, the anchor investor behind a separate chip-financing deal for Anthropic, now expects a double-B range rating for the company -- the top tier of speculative-grade 'junk' debt -- rather than the investment-grade outcome it had previously forecast before 2027. TechCrunch reports Anthropic "has been on a spending spree, signing large compute power deals over the past 12 months," which is the behavior now worrying prospective bondholders ahead of the roadshow.
Why a junk rating matters for the IPO
A speculative-grade rating would make it harder and more expensive for Anthropic to raise the debt it still needs to fund compute commitments Pulse has valued at $417 billion to $567 billion.
It also isn't a surprise to everyone: Kroll Bond Rating Agency assigned Anthropic a BB+ issuer rating with a stable outlook back in June 2026, ahead of a separate $35 billion chip financing led by Apollo, per Dealroom. Blackstone's updated forecast effectively confirms KBRA's June call rather than introducing a new rating.
Anthropic's financing stack in context
- KBRA -- BB+, issued June 2026, stable outlook.
- Blackstone -- anchor on a $63 billion chip-financing deal; now projects BB-range at IPO, down from investment-grade.
- Apollo -- led a separate $35 billion chip financing that included junior debt.
- Amazon, Google and an infrastructure partner -- together hold $77 billion of undrawn note-purchase facilities that settle in or convert to stock rather than cash.
However, a junk rating doesn't settle the liquidity question by itself. Anthropic's S-1 showed $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments against $6.2 billion of debt actually outstanding, so the risk a speculative-grade label captures is the scale of future commitments and spending pace, not an immediate cash shortfall. Anthropic and Blackstone both declined to comment to TechCrunch, and Blackstone's own forecast is, in the outlet's words, "just a prediction" -- not a rating agency's final call. That distinction matters for the roadshow: a company can be well-capitalized today and still carry a junk rating if lenders doubt the multi-year spending plan, which is closer to Anthropic's situation than a near-term default risk.
What to watch next
Watch which agency -- Moody's, S&P or Fitch -- issues the first public rating ahead of the roadshow, whether it lands in the BB range Blackstone now expects or matches KBRA's BB+, and whether that rating moves the pricing conversation Pulse has been tracking around Anthropic's $965 billion private valuation. Underwriters will also have to decide how prominently to disclose the rating in the prospectus itself, since a speculative-grade label on the cover of an IPO filing is unusual for a company of Anthropic's size and public profile.