The 2026 IPO pipeline is the most anticipated since 2021 — but anticipation hasn't translated into listings at the pace the market hoped.
As of May 2026, the pipeline holds over 25 major venture-backed companies targeting public listings this year. Klarna has filed its S-1. Chime has filed confidentially. Cerebras is stuck in regulatory limbo. And dozens of 2021-vintage unicorns are still waiting for a window that never quite opens the way VCs need it to.
Here's the complete picture: who's going public, at what valuation, and what the real blockers are for each deal.
The 2026 IPO Window: Market Conditions
Three things define the 2026 IPO environment. First, the Fed held rates in the 4.25–4.5% range through Q1 2026, stabilizing but not aggressively easing. Second, Coreweave's March 2025 IPO — pricing at $19/share for a $19B valuation — demonstrated that AI-infrastructure businesses can clear the public markets at reasonable multiples. Third, institutional LPs are demanding DPI. The 2021 vintage cohort is now 5+ years old, and limited partners want cash, not more paper marks.
The window is open — but it's selective. Companies with positive operating cash flow, clear revenue trajectories, and proven unit economics are clearing. Companies that are still pre-profitable and dependent on AI-hype multiples are waiting.
The Full 2026 IPO Pipeline
Sorted by likelihood of 2026 listing. Valuations are targets or last reported secondary market prices.
Filed with SEC in late 2024. NYSE listing. Returned to profitability. Down significantly from $46B peak.
Largest US neobank by customers (~22M accounts). Revenue primarily from interchange. Filed confidentially in 2025.
Turned down $12B Microsoft acquisition offer in 2021. Growing subscription revenue. No formal S-1 yet.
Adobe deal blocked by EU regulators in December 2023. Figma paid $1B termination fee. IPO is the logical next step.
Filed S-1 in September 2024. G42 (UAE) investment triggered CFIUS review. Restructuring cap table to comply.
Filed confidentially in UK in 2024. US listing faces scrutiny over sourcing practices and China ties.
Visa acquisition blocked in 2021. Now profitable. Revenue from financial data APIs. No formal filing.
Pivoted to SMB and enterprise after exiting retail consumer. Strong growth in spend management platform.
Valued at $65B in secondary markets. Leadership has consistently pushed back on IPO timeline. Employee liquidity managed via secondaries.
Raised $10B in Q4 2024 at $62B valuation. Growing at 50%+ YoY. No formal IPO plans.
What's Holding Back the IPO Pipeline
Four structural issues are keeping the pipeline from clearing faster:
The 2021 valuation hangover
Most of these companies last raised at 2021 multiples — 30–100x revenue. Public markets are pricing comparable companies at 8–15x revenue in 2026. Founders and boards are waiting for a window that justifies a higher price, but that window may never fully reopen.
Rate sensitivity and macro uncertainty
The IPO market is deeply correlated with the 10-year Treasury yield. With rates stabilizing (not falling) at 4.25–4.5%, institutional investors are demanding higher earnings yields from equities, compressing what they'll pay for growth.
Secondary market alternatives
The rise of GP-led secondaries and tender offers has reduced the urgency for companies to go public to generate employee liquidity. Stripe's annual secondary program and Databricks' $10B raise show that large private companies can manage liquidity needs without the costs and scrutiny of an IPO.
Regulatory complexity
Cerebras is the clearest example: a well-positioned AI chip company can't go public because of a single foreign investor. The CFIUS process is slower and less predictable than at any point in the past decade, particularly for companies with exposure to defense or AI infrastructure.
What VCs and LPs Are Watching For
From conversations across the LP community, these are the deals with the most pressure attached:
| Company | Who's Waiting | Est. VC Value at IPO | Vintage Funds Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klarna | Sequoia, Atomico, Silver Lake | $3–5B+ realized gains | 2011–2021 funds |
| Stripe | Sequoia, a16z, Founders Fund | $15B+ unrealized | 2010–2016 funds |
| Databricks | Andreessen Horowitz, NEA | $10B+ unrealized | 2013–2021 funds |
| Discord | Greenoaks, Index, Greylock | $2–3B+ gains | 2015–2021 funds |
| Figma | Index, Greylock, Sequoia | $3–4B+ gains | 2013–2021 funds |
Track public market performance and IPO outcomes on the Tech IPO Dashboard at Value Add VC. Historical IPO volume data is available on our IPO tracker.
My Take: Fewer Than Half Will List in 2026
The VC industry has been calling every year since 2022 "the year the IPO window opens." It keeps not happening at the scale the backlog implies.
My base case for 2026: 8–10 major tech listings, concentrated in H2. Klarna is the most likely to close because the pressure is real — employees have been waiting 6+ years for liquidity. Chime is the other one I believe closes before December.
Discord and Figma are "when, not if" stories but both boards have demonstrated patience. Stripe and Databricks are genuinely in no hurry — both generate enough secondary market liquidity to manage employee pressure without the scrutiny of a public market.
Cerebras is the wildcard. If CFIUS resolves in Q2 2026, it could be one of the most interesting AI hardware listings in history. If it doesn't, it slips into 2027 and the company faces the risk of Nvidia and AMD widening their lead in the meantime.
The IPO backlog represents $200B+ in unrealized VC value.
But the companies most likely to list in 2026 are the ones that never needed to — they have the leverage to wait for the right price.
Track the 2026 IPO pipeline in real time on the Tech IPO Dashboard at Value Add VC. Originally published in the Trace Cohen newsletter.