Analysis
SpaceX delivered its first earnings report as a public company this week, and the numbers told two different stories depending on which line investors focused on. Revenue came in at $7.81 billion for the second quarter, up 92% from $4.1 billion a year earlier and about 13% above the $6.93 billion Wall Street expected. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion beat the $2.0 billion consensus by 75%, and the company's net loss narrowed sharply to $541 million from $1 billion in the prior-year quarter.
The Capex Number That Spooked the Market
The stock's reaction told a different story. Shares rose as much as 9.4% during the regular session on the headline beat, then reversed to fall roughly 7-8.6% in after-hours trading once investors zeroed in on capital expenditure: $18.37 billion for the quarter, with $15.83 billion of that specifically directed at AI infrastructure -- about 39% above the $13.22 billion analysts had modeled. CFO Bret Johnsen told investors on the call that SpaceX is targeting $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year-end, raised guidance for the first time since its IPO, but the capex figure dominated analyst questions regardless.
“A revenue beat this large getting overshadowed by a capex line is a preview of the scrutiny every AI-infrastructure-heavy public company should expect from here.”
This is the first genuine test of how public markets price SpaceX now that private-market storytelling has to hold up against quarterly disclosure -- the same dynamic Cerebras has faced since its May listing, and the one Anthropic and OpenAI are both about to face with their own pending IPOs. A revenue beat this large getting overshadowed by a capex line is a preview of the scrutiny every AI-infrastructure-heavy public company should expect from here.
What to watch: whether the AI segment's 247% year-over-year revenue growth to $2.6 billion continues to outpace the capex ramp funding it, and how the stock trades into the roughly 1-billion-share lockup expiration landing just two days after this capex-driven pullback.
