Analysis
IPO pipeline coverage tends to flatten seven very different states of readiness into one list. It's worth separating them, because "going public in 2026" means something different for each of these companies.
The actual tiers
- Filed publicly -- Oura (S-1 filed Sept. 3, Nasdaq ticker OURA, revenue up 74% to $1.21 billion over nine months) and SB Energy (S-1/A filed Sept. 4, ticker SBE). These two have documents a public investor can actually read today.
- Filed confidentially -- Anthropic, which submitted its S-1 to the SEC on June 1 and has since expanded its credit facility to $15 billion while its timeline slips toward mid-October. A real filing exists; the public just can't see it yet.
- Bankers retained, no filing -- Crusoe, which brought on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley against a $30 billion private mark but has not filed anything.
- Pre-IPO financing in market -- Nscale, raising $3.5 billion at a $30 billion cap ahead of a possible listing, which is a funding round, not a registration.
- Executive comment only -- Kraken, whose co-CEO said the company is about 80% ready for a 2026 listing, and SambaNova, "strongly considering" a US listing against an $11 billion private mark. Neither has retained bankers publicly.
“## The actual tiers - Filed publicly -- Oura (S-1 filed Sept.”
Why the gap matters
Of the eight companies Crunchbase named earlier this year as the class's clearest candidates, exactly one has actually converted to a public filing -- Oura. That is a much lower conversion rate than pipeline coverage implies, because "going public" gets used as a single verb for a process that in practice has at least five distinct, sequential gates, and most of the companies on any given list are still at gate one or two.
The distinction is not academic for anyone trying to time an allocation. A confidential filing (Anthropic) can still be pulled or delayed with almost no public signal -- exactly what happened when its timeline slipped from late September to mid-October. A company at the "executive comment" stage (SambaNova) has made no commitment that survives a change in market conditions between now and whenever it might actually file.
The practical filter: treat "retained bankers" as a real signal of intent, "pre-IPO financing" as a signal the company needs the cash now regardless of when it lists, and "considering" as exactly that -- a comment, not a plan.
