US VC deal volume fell to roughly 15,000 deals in 2025, down from ~18,000 in 2024 and ~24,000 at the 2021 peak — a 40% collapse in deal count, even as total dollars deployed climbed back to ~$209B.
That's the short answer. The longer answer is more interesting — because the two numbers point in opposite directions, and almost every "VC is back" headline you read in 2025 was quoting the dollar figure and ignoring the deal count. Fewer companies are getting funded than at any point since 2018. The capital that exists is just stacking into a handful of AI rounds.
VC deal volume 2025 vs 2024 vs 2021: the numbers
US VC deal volume in 2025 was approximately 15,000 completed deals, compared with roughly 18,000 in 2024 and about 24,000 in 2021. Over that four-year span, the number of venture deals fell ~40% while total capital deployed went from ~$345B in 2021 down to ~$170B in 2023 and back up to ~$209B in 2025. The recovery you've heard about is a dollar recovery, not a deal recovery.
| Metric | 2021 (peak) | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| US deal count (approx.) | ~24,000 | ~18,000 | ~15,000 |
| Total $ deployed | ~$345B | ~$190B | ~$209B |
| Median seed pre-money | $10M | $13.5M | $14M |
| Median Series A round | $16M | $13M | $15M |
| Share of $ in $100M+ rounds | ~48% | ~58% | ~70% |
| First-time financings | ~6,500 | ~4,000 | ~3,400 |
| US exits ($ value) | ~$780B | ~$150B | ~$215B |
Figures are rounded approximations synthesized from PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor and Carta data. Exact counts vary by source and revise upward for ~2 quarters as late-reported deals are added.
Why 2021 was never the baseline
The single biggest analytical mistake people make is treating 2021 as "normal" and everything since as a decline from normal. 2021 was an anomaly. With the federal funds rate near 0%, crossover funds like Tiger Global, Coatue, and SoftBank were doing 1.5+ deals per business day, with diligence cycles compressed to days. That produced ~24,000 deals — but a large share were overpriced, under-diligenced, and have since been marked down or written off.
Measured against 2018–2019 — the last "normal" pre-COVID years, which ran around 11,000–12,000 deals — 2025's ~15,000 deals is actually above the structural baseline. The right framing isn't "deals fell 40% from 2021." It's "2021 overshot by ~50%, and we've now reverted toward a higher-but-saner trend line." I lived through both cycles as an investor; the 2021 pace was never going to hold.
How VC deal volume changed by stage
The decline in the number of deals was not evenly distributed. Early-stage took the hardest hit in raw count, while late-stage held up in dollars because that's where the AI mega-rounds live. Here's where the contraction actually landed:
Pre-seed / Seed
Fewer new companies entering the pipeline — the leading indicator that matters most
Series A
Now effectively requires $1–2M ARR where 2021 funded a deck and a demo
Series B
The 'graveyard' — many 2021 seed/A companies can't clear the new B bar
Late-stage / Growth
AI mega-rounds ($1B+) concentrate capital into 20–30 names
Why dollars rose while deal volume fell
In 2021, the top decile of rounds accounted for roughly 48% of all dollars deployed. In 2025, rounds of $100M+ absorbed close to 70% of all VC dollars. A single category — frontier AI — explains most of the gap. Consider how lopsided 2025 was:
OpenAI
~$40BLargest private financing in history
Anthropic
~$13B+Multiple raises across the year
xAI
~$10B+Equity + debt stack
Top ~20 AI rounds combined
>$100BMore than half of all US VC dollars
Strip out the top 20 AI deals and the 2025 dollar figure looks a lot more like 2023's trough. This is why I keep telling founders: the "$209B deployed" headline has almost nothing to do with whether your seed round gets done. For the median company, 2025 was a harder market than the aggregate suggests. Track the concentration yourself on the VC Performance dashboard.
What changing deal volume means for founders
What's working in 2025–26
- ✓ Real revenue earlier — $1M+ ARR before Series A
- ✓ AI-native products with proprietary data or distribution
- ✓ Capital efficiency — 18–24 month default runway plans
- ✓ Insider-led rounds and extensions over new-lead hunts
What stopped working
- ✕ Raising on a narrative with no traction
- ✕ Assuming a quick next round to fix a thin one
- ✕ 2021-style valuations without 2021-style growth
- ✕ Waiting for tourist capital that has left the market
The deal count tells you the truth the dollar figure hides.
~15,000 deals in 2025 vs ~24,000 in 2021 means fewer companies funded — but the ones that clear the bar are getting more capital and a cleaner cap table.
Track VC fund performance and deal trends on the VC Performance Dashboard at Value Add VC. Originally published in the Trace Cohen newsletter.